Key points:
- Universities must focus on the student populations who want to upskill and expand their learning
- Creating a supportive environment for adult and returning learners can help ensure the success of all students
- See related article: 4 ways to improve adult learners’ experiences
Rising costs, increasing student debt, the potential effects of AI, questions related to the value of a degree: these and more are contributing to the perfect storm for colleges and universities. An aspect that, perhaps, has the greatest attention from leaders of institutions of higher education, their CFOs, and enrollment managers is that of the enrollment cliff–the potential catastrophic effect of the looming shrinking of the college-age population and the decrease in enrollments seen, or predicted to be seen, across the nation.
Changing demographics, the effects of lower birth rates during the great recession, and decreases in the perceived “value” of a degree, with some states and corporations opening up jobs to those without one, definitely have serious consequences for institutions of higher education, ranging from lower revenues based on enrollment-derived tuition and state funding, decreased use of facilities and consequent decreased revenue from auxiliaries such as residence halls and meal plans, and increased competition for students leading at times to greater investments in non-academic facilities.
National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data show that between Fall 2010 and Fall 2021, the total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting post-secondary institutions decreased by 14.6 percent, from 18.1 million to 15.4 million, with the overall college enrollment rate for 18–24-year-olds decreasing from 41 percent to 38 percent. A recent analysis of NCES data by Tyton Partners showed that of every 100 students who enter high school, 87 will graduate, 53 will start college, only 33 will earn a degree, and only 22 will get a “good job.”
Looking at it another way, 67 of every 100 students entering high school will not earn a degree, and 78 will not gain from what is often termed the best investment that anyone can make–that of a college degree. Of the 4.2 million students who attended the ninth grade in fall 2021, 2.81 million will not get that ring. Over a decade, that’s more than 28 million–not an insignificant percentage of the population and not one that bodes well for the future. The National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) estimated that as of July 2021 there were 40.4 million Americans with some college and no degree, of which more than 64 percent were between the ages of 20 and 44–the prime period for gaining prosperity and upward social mobility. Combined, that’s tens of millions of students/learners looking at a different enrollment cliff–one that represents the barriers and difficulties in enrolling and progressing, unable to have the opportunity of gaining from the promise of higher education.
Vistasp M. Karbhari is a Professor in the Departments of Civil Engineering, and Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering at the University of Texas at Arlington, where he served as President from 2013-2020. He is Fellow of Complete College America, and can be followed on Twitter at @VistaspKarbhari and on LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/vistaspmkarbhari.
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