Key points:
- Continuous immigration uncertainty risks students looking at other destinations
- Here’s what I wish I’d known as an immigrant student heading to the Ivy League
- The new rules of student recruitment for adult learners
- For more on international enrollment, visit eCN’s Campus Leadership hub
Right now, U.S. higher education leaders are holding their breath. Will international students make it to campus? The 2023–24 academic year closed on a record note–with more than 1.1 million international students enrolled and contributing more than $50 billion to our economy. While there are conflicting reports on the 2024-2025 enrollment numbers, previous optimism now collides with unprecedented turbulence.
Shifting SEVIS policies and documentation requirements, visa appointment delays and embassy backlogs, and enhanced social-media scrutiny are threatening a downturn. We’re monitoring reports that Bangladeshis are experiencing the most extreme delays and posts in Nigeria, Ghana, and other high-volume locations have multi-month backlogs. NAFSA projects a potentially devastating 15 percent drop in overall international enrollment–about 150,000 fewer students–translating into as much as $7 billion in lost revenue and 60,000 job cuts.
For the higher-ed community, DSOs are working overtime to keep pace with orientation deadlines and accommodations such as deferred starts, remote or hybrid attendance, and alternate entry points. And while enrollment often feels like a numbers game, behind every seat is a student’s world disrupted.
We know from IIE Open Doors that international graduate enrollment rose 8 percent, and OPT (e.g., optional practical training) participation surged 22 percent, even as undergraduate enrollment dipped slightly. The U.S. remains a destination of choice–demand for U.S. higher education institutions and the programs they offer as well as OPT pathways is high. But continuous immigration uncertainty risks students looking at other destinations that appear more navigable. Many institutions believe visa backlogs will extend into spring.
Policy shifts compound these issues. One of the latest policy change proposals is duration of status. Today, the duration-of-status model gives international students flexibility to remain in the U.S. to complete their degrees as long as they are enrolled. Under proposed changes, students would be issued strict exit dates tied to their program timeline, four years plus 30 days after graduation. This is an unrealistic burden for international students to bear as data shows less than half (44 percent) of college students complete a bachelor’s degree program in four years. Class demand, research delays, and internship extensions can throw off the schedules. A fixed exit date will create compliance minefields that could force students to leave and reenter or even derail their studies entirely.
Meanwhile, Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) recertification looms. Eligible schools need authorization from the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement every two years to enroll and issue Form I-20s. For many schools, especially smaller or private institutions reliant on international tuitions, recertification is already a stress point. Now, amid a climate of heightened federal scrutiny, there is fear that even minor procedural missteps could carry outsized consequences.
Let’s not forget what this means for perceptions of U.S. higher education abroad, which has previously been the biggest influencer for international students’ location selection. OPT is a huge benefit for international students, as they can work temporarily and gain practice in their field of study while working on a degree or post-graduation. Ambiguity around how long students can stay post-graduation chips away at that value. Even more, when students sense instability–long visa waits, last-minute policies, countries excluding them via travel bans–they begin to weigh alternatives. Many are already considering Canada, Australia, or the UK as more stable fallbacks.
The anxiety is palpable. DSOs and advisors are on call 24/7–fielding frantic messages as students abroad wait for visas, preparing and adjusting orientation schedules, trying to manage enrollment delays, and navigating every SEVIS requirement. Compliance fatigue is real, and its impact is material: every delay, every manual follow-up adds compounding risk. If documentation isn’t perfect or deadlines slip, schools risk losing their ability to enroll international students–and students risk losing status, face deportation, or have dreams crumble overnight.
In this environment, technology enablement is essential. This includes automated workflows to help compliance teams manage SEVIS, providing visibility into who has arrived, who’s deferred, and being able to adjust rapidly when visa backlogs shift unpredictably. And some level of automation helps provide students clear, real-time updates–reducing uncertainty through proactive communication rather than reactive firefighting.
By late September, as add/drop deadlines and SEVIS registration windows close, we’ll know how deeply this has hit. There are a lot of ifs. If students haven’t arrived, yield collapses. If DSOs are overwhelmed, noncompliance risk grows. If that happens, institutions risk not only revenue loss, but tangible reputational damage–and students risk losing financial and academic investments.
Down the road, as projections come into focus, we’re already hearing that international student enrollment in the U.S. could remain flat–but only if we stabilize now. There are still a lot of unknowns and the ability of higher education to respond and navigate further regulation will shape whether the U.S. remains the magnet for global talent that it’s long been.
DSOs need to be empowered to handle rapid changes with steady, transparent, and confidence-inspiring communications. In this moment of institutional vulnerability, what you choose to do–or not do–could determine whether U.S. higher education emerges more resilient or falls permanently behind in international education’s global competition.
Our industry is passionate about what we do, and we must meet this uncertainty not with paralysis, but with clarity, agility, and empathy. That way, when international students arrive–with visas, hopes, and nerves–they find campuses a place of welcome, not ambiguity.
Travis Ulrich is a Terra Dotta senior vice president with more than a decade of international education and SEVIS compliance experience. He previously led and supported international student and scholar services and campus internationalization efforts at the University of Illinois at Chicago and at the University of Wisconsin—Madison.
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