Key points:
- There’s no way around it–you can’t avoid the impending enrollment cliff
- Higher-ed leaders will need to be strategic and track four key components to successfully navigate a tricky situation
- See related article: 5 insights about higher-ed’s looming enrollment cliff
You are likely aware of the impending higher-ed enrollment cliff expected to hit higher education soon. The higher-ed enrollment cliff is a demographic trend resulting from a decline in the number of high school graduates in the early 2000s. Now that those students are reaching college-age, the metrics are clear – many college seats available, not nearly enough students to fill them all.
Preparing for the looming higher-ed enrollment cliff is a central topic in higher education meetings, conferences, and webinars. Too often, these meetings revolve around the conventional go-to topics: diversifying revenue streams, exploring non-traditional and graduate programs, improving recruitment strategies, and boosting retention rates. These initiatives matter, but haven’t these always been strategic priorities? The question now is: What new strategies are needed to prepare for the impending cliff?
Campuses cannot simply market their way around the cliff. A comprehensive solution is required, which means programs and operational excellence are equally important. As I meet with college and university presidents and their boards, leaders in Washington, D.C., and leaders in the edtech sector, I noticed 4 factors that warrant more attention when preparing for the enrollment cliff.
College-going rates in your market is a metric you need to know
The college-going rate is the number of higher school graduates who enroll in college. It is critical that you know these rates throughout your markets. Everyone is aware of the national demographics. Not as many campuses are paying close attention to the college-going rates in their primary and secondary markets. Are those rates increasing or decreasing in your markets? What are the projections in the coming years? These rates will either increase or mitigate the severity of the cliff you experience.
Robert Heil is the CEO of Financial Aid Services (FAS). Robert brings more than 25 years of higher education and leadership experience as a university administrator, a highly respected consultant and thought leader, and executive for multiple EdTech and consulting firms.
- Schools are building AI rules before they know the destination - August 17, 2026
- Cohort connections matter: Strategies to help graduate students persist and succeed - August 14, 2026
- Higher education needs better AI experiences, not more AI tools - August 12, 2026