Undergraduate enrollment is winding down after what has been a tumultuous year, to say the least. Students and institutions alike are faced with uncertainty as they begin their freshman years and begin to recruit the class of 2021.
A new Eduventures Insight report examines data from 2019 and 2020 to examine the actual impact COVID-19 has had on undergraduate enrollment patterns. The statistics help pinpoint what has really changed in students’ decision-making behaviors–and understanding this will help recruitment and enrollment leaders finalize fall 2020 enrollment, anticipate retention issues, and consider best paths forward for fall 2021 recruitment.
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The report, from Principal Analyst Kim Reid, offers a number of key takeaways:
Changes in undergraduate enrollment patterns: In times of economic turmoil, public institutions are seeing a surge of in-state students arriving at their doors. Research in this report shows a 6 percent increase in students choosing to attend an in-state public institution. This movement toward lower-cost education comes at the expense of higher-cost options, especially the out-of-state public choice, which dropped by 5 percent. The choice to attend a private institution has also dropped by 3 percent.
Distance from home: The COVID-19 crisis has had a strong effect on the distance some students are willing to travel for their education. The sudden angst of shutting down the 2019-2020 academic year is not long forgotten. The travails of students making quick (and expensive) arrangements to return home from campus may have left an indelible mark.
A change in value proposition: Getting students to make the decision to choose an institution means making a sharply convincing argument about the value of a particular college education in a time of heightened concern about price and safety. The comparative data in this report indicates a shift in the focus on value. This year, students place more importance on two key components of the college decision: academic strength and affordability.
Confidence in enrollment choice: Research in this report shows 30 to 40 percent of students indicate some uncertainty about their undergraduate enrollment choice, leaving many institutions with a mammoth wave of continuing melt and retention risk.
The undergraduate enrollment landscape is still changing due to COVID-19, and institutions must keep the class of 2020 engaged and enrolled, while at the same time working to enroll the class of 2021.
The data can help guide important next steps when it comes to enrollment:
1. The line between melt and retention will blur. Collaboration between undergraduate enrollment offices and academic and student affairs in order to make transitions as seamless as possible will be critical this year.
2. Your competitive set will change. Institutions will be in competition with a greater number of public and regional institutions, including those with whom they haven’t previously considered competitors.
3. Recruit more regionally, with some exceptions. Students who were inclined to move across the country are now less willing to do so. This should be taken into consideration.
4. Sharpen your value proposition by focusing on the essentials. Students still want to see their pathways at your university, but in the end, they will focus on academic strength and affordability.
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